Steno Global Macro Fund Update: Very solid month amidst the Trump-turmoil

We continue to see solid returns in a volatile, headline-driven environment by cutting away the noice and focusing on what our nowcasting models tell us. Read more:
-0,01%

Month To Date

1.60%

Year To Date

 

Dear all,

 

A week ago, everyone was focused on the Chinese DeepSeek model, and now, just one week later, Trump’s trade policies are back in the limelight. We continue to judge that Trump is focused on being seen as a deal-maker, leading to the conclusion that tariffs are mainly used to force urgent outcomes—hence, mostly noise for the investment process. So far, that has been a good judgment.

We continue to see promising developments beneath the hood in our macro nowcasts, with Asia catching up in particular. Meanwhile, growth-sensitive stocks in Nasdaq are likely to continue underperforming more cycle-sensitive sectors in the U.S. The 2017 playbook, when Trump entered office with similar urgent deal-making tactics, eventually led to a weaker USD and lower bond yields. We find a similar dynamic likely to unfold in the coming months.

All in all, we returned close to 3% after costs in January. We remain on top of risk-taking despite the very bumpy markets impacted by Trump’s running rhetoric and aim to continue being a safe pair of hands on the wheel through this tricky period in macro markets.

 

Best regards,
Andreas Steno
Chief Investment Officer,
Asgard-Steno Global Macro

 

Macro chart of the week: The business cycle is IMPROVING despite Trumps turmoil