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Dear all,

We are entering a groundbreaking period with critical negotiations unfolding simultaneously around Ukraine, Yemen, and Gaza. Donald Trump’s geopolitical team is now facing a major test as the Middle East truce unravels, while Iran continues to challenge the U.S. through Houthi-led attacks in the Red Sea. To navigate these crises, Trump will likely need Putin’s cooperation on a nuclear deal with Iran, making it less probable that he takes a hardline stance in the Ukraine truce talks.

Meanwhile, our nowcast models continue to signal slowing growth and inflation, making it increasingly difficult to find safe havens. Given this backdrop, we are cautiously positioning for a weaker USD and lower U.S. bond yields while also implementing strategic geopolitical hedges to protect our portfolio against escalating risks.

Despite the volatility, we continue to outperform peers, global bond indices, and equities. Our positive trend return through January, February, and March reflects the strength of our approach, even though we have surrendered some momentum over the past week. Our disciplined risk management remains key to maintaining performance in this highly uncertain environment.

We have returned approximately 1.50% through March so far and are now up 2.91% year to date.

If you would like an update on the strategy, please book a meeting with us here!

Best regards,
Andreas Steno
Chief Investment Officer,
Asgard-Steno Global Macro Fund

Performance chart of the week:

Macro charts of the week: