We’ve lost a tad of ground over the past week but remain firmly up more than 3% year-to-date, despite the incredible turbulence we’ve seen this year.

The recent setback in market confidence around US Treasuries temporarily impacted our return profile. Nevertheless, we continue to align with the prevailing macro trends in inflation and growth.

Inflation has come in surprisingly low through March and April—but not for us. Our ability to monitor these trends in real time gives us a strong edge. We continue to hold the view that inflation will surprise to the downside in the short term, contrary to the broader market consensus.

This week, Fed Governor Chris Waller positioned himself as Powell’s likely successor by suggesting a dovish reaction function to the tariff policy shock—a shock that could prove more significant than March 2020 in some respects. We believe this shift has not yet been fully priced in by the markets.

Despite the incredibly tricky environment, we remain optimistic about generating strong returns and are on track to deliver another month of positive performance while global markets remain volatile.

If you’d like an update on the strategy, feel free to book a meeting with us here!

Best regards,
Andreas Steno
Chief Investment Officer
Asgard-Steno Global Macro Fund

Performance chart of the week: