Author: Mikkel Rosenvold

Weekly Update – The regime is out of options in Iran

Dear investor, We have had a strong month so far and continue to receive increasingly upbeat signals on risk-taking—especially in U.S. risk assets—via our nowcasting models, as inflation declines. Meanwhile, the “trade reopening” has supported improvements in global order books and trade flows. At the same time, liquidity is also improving, supported by a…
Weekly Update – Strong thematic bets while we assess US/China deal

Dear investor, With markets awaiting the US-China trade deal for the past 1-2 weeks, we finally got some news on that front. The details of the deal are still very unclear and vague, so we’re still analyzing the market response and how this will play out. Overall, it seems like both the US and China…
Weekly Update

Dear Investor As we’re closing up another month of great political volatility driven by trade uncertainty and policy initiatives, we are quite pleased with our monthly return of ~ 0.4%, which brings us to ~3.7%% YTD performance. We have had great results from our thematic bets on the European digital defense sector and are continuing…
Weekly Update: Possibilities for a strong end to Q2

Dear investor, The past week saw a number of interesting developments in the macro landscape. We saw significant movements in bond yields, mainly triggered by the downgrade of the US federal debt by Moody’s as well as early signs of a strong season for risk assets. Our models underscore the fertile grounds for risk assets…
Weekly Update

It’s been another hectic week with ever-shifting headlines on trade, geopolitics and macro signals. The China trade deal landed over the weekend and although a lot of details are still unclear, it gives us a path out of the tariff and trade war quagmire. Meanwhile, a US-EU trade deal looks trickier and the US administration…
Weekly Update: Relief rally continued

Dear investors and followers, The relief rally from Trump’s apparent semi back-tracking on the tarriffs issue continued and drove up equities. The key question, however, is still whether the de facto embargo between US and China ends this month, and to which extent sectorial tariffs will hit equity markets on Wednesday when announced. The USD…
Weekly Update: Here comes the bad US macro data

After another solid week for our strategy, we are looking ahead to a range of key U.S. data releases that will showcase how the current supply shock shares similarities with the early stages of the pandemic. The U.S. goods balance reached new all-time lows in March due to tariff frontrunning, and inventories of finished goods…
Weekly Update: Calm Before the Post-Easter Storm?

We’ve lost a tad of ground over the past week but remain firmly up more than 3% year-to-date, despite the incredible turbulence we’ve seen this year. The recent setback in market confidence around US Treasuries temporarily impacted our return profile. Nevertheless, we continue to align with the prevailing macro trends in inflation and growth. Inflation…
Weekly Update: A Steady Hand Through Market Panic – Up >4% This Year

The market has entered panic mode, but we have maintained a steady hand amid the turbulence triggered by Trump’s outrageous tariff plans. Our ability to track the economy in real-time has once again helped us avoid the drawdown. We’re now observing similarly weak growth patterns across the globe, making it difficult to find safe…
Flash Update: S&P500 down 4.8% – We’re UP by >1.0%

Global equities are in complete freefall after the historic and dramatic tariffs package. We’ve received a lot of questions from investors and others regarding how we have navigated the turmoil on Thursday, so here is a quick flash update. Due to our ability to nowcast the activity globally, we were well positioned for…